I’ve been watching a great series on Apple TV called “Vietnam. The War that changed America”, well worth a watch. But very depressing for anyone who thinks that humanity learns from past mistakes.
I am reminded of the book Cats Cradle by Kurt Vonnegut when a main character reads a book called “What humanity has learnt in 6,000 years of civilisation”. The book has one page. With one word. Nothing!
I am not quite so cynical, but I do think that information is only part of the puzzle.
During the Vietnam conflict the US poured literally millions into finding out everything they could about the Vietcong (VC). They gathered intelligence via the CIA on the VC about their activities, organization and strategies. They flew reconnaissance missions over supply lines and troop movements. They infiltrated VC units, interviewed thousands of defectors and had to build new buildings to house the masses of data that they accumulated for their hundreds of highly intelligent analysts to pour over.
Did it work?
If the outcome of the war is anything to go by. No!
Often as negotiators people tell us if they only knew this or had been told that they would be in greater control and get much better outcomes. And of course, the release of and control of information has its role to play, but we can see the same information and have very different ideas about the part it plays.
We can all agree that inflation is increasing the costs of raw materials, but disagree on who should cover them. We can all agree that things should not go wrong, but disagree on who covers the liability for mistakes. We can all see that the future is unknown, but disagree how we manage that variability in our relationships.
Information is a part of the puzzle, but the picture on the box is influenced by culture, power, emotion and attitude.
In Vietnam, the Americans thought the war would be over in weeks, all their analysis pointed to that outcome. This incomplete and inaccurate assessment driven by complexities of guerilla warfare, local hostility and cultural factors proved them wrong. Don’t get misled by thinking if you know everything then outcomes are obvious.
Knowledge can be learned, but wisdom takes skill, time and experience.
I hope our collective wisdom leads to knowing more than nothing.
