As I write, delegations from Ukraine and Russia are due to meet directly (in Istanbul) for the first time since the full-scale invasion was launched more than three years ago. While this has obviously stoked heightened expectations around progress towards a ceasefire – perhaps even the scaffolding of a peace agreement – the absence of Vladmir Putin has attracted a good deal of attention. David Lammy, the UK’s foreign secretary, contrasted the presence of Ukranian president Zelensky with the ”low level” representatives arriving from Russia. The subject of many of 2025’s blogs, Donald Trump, has touted that even he may grace Istanbul with his presence – should the talks emit positive signals.
At Scotwork, our advice in terms of who should lead negotiating teams is that the individual closest to the situation in question is usually most appropriate. Clearly, in the case of the invasion of Ukraine, the man who ordered it fits that particular description – and yet Putin has stayed away. Why?
- As it stands on the battlefield, and in relation to the continuing appetite for the US to provide Ukraine logistical support, postponement favours Russia. Putin’s absence is unlikely to make any process of finding an agreement quicker. It could be that it’s simply a delaying tactic on Russia’s behalf.
- Many negotiators will be familiar with deals where one or more of the parties determine that it’s in their interests to have a higher authority to refer terms back to before finally agreeing. This can be a delaying tactic (as above) or to artificially affect the power balance (“Vladmir will never agree to this – give us more to take back to him”)
- Putin’s various assertions around the conflict are very much at odds with the idea that he is an equal to his Ukranian counterpart – it could be that his absence is a signal that Putin will only negotiate with somebody he sees as his equal, and that person is not Zelensky.
- Given the above and recent statements made by the US administration around what Ukraine will need to concede in territorial terms, it would seem that Russia might make a calculation that it will achieve more of its objectives in any negotiated peace if the Istanbul talks are delayed, and Putin can negotiate a deal with somebody he sees as an appropriately equivalent power.
If any of that speculation has a basis, in fact, then one outcome might be Putin and Trump negotiating a deal bilaterally – a scenario trailed by Trump himself and one that Zelensky and EU leaders are equally keen to avoid. While Putin’s decision to stay in Moscow has certainly not brought him closer to Zelensky or the majority of politicians expressing an opinion, my best guess is that he may be calculating that staying away might encourage the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to show him some more of the fondness to which he has become accustomed down the years.
