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The New Future

Horace McDonald
Negotiation Team Disagreement [Converted]
© Adobe Stock

During a week in which we have seen the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States, I’ve decided to avoid the temptation to write about it. Frankly, the whole spectacle leaves me wondering what the state of the world might be in 2029. Instead, I’m trying to ‘Keep Calm and Carry on’ and I’ve decided to write about something closer to home.

Anyone who follows UK politics will know that the recently installed Labour Government have experienced a challenging 6 months, linked primarily to their first budget statement in November 2024. The budget sought to increase Government tax receipts (to balance the books and invest in growth) by £40 billion through increases in National Insurance contributions and a lower threshold on which the tax is triggered. This unleashed a tsunami of criticism, much of it from businesses, about the party’s ability to manage the economy (which has always been Labour’s Achilles heel) and how the budget would damage job prospects.

Whilst there has been some respite with the latest inflation figures coming below the forecast of the Bank of England, the economy has since seen a reduction in job vacancies and an increase in salaries. There does, however, look to be some respite coming in lower interest rates in the coming months.

The latest issue that has hit the press is the future development of Heathrow and Gatwick Airports, with each airport seeking to build an additional runway. The sides are pitted between the Chancellor of the Exchequer – Rachel Reeves (who is responsible for the Budget) who believes that the new runways will help to drive economic growth. The opponents in her party are Ed Miliband - Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change, and Sadiq Khan the Mayor of London who have cited the looming 2030 Net Zero targets as reasons for not moving forward with development. There is a secondary problem, in that there appears to be evidence that building more runways does not increase GDP.

I have sympathy for Reeves, in developed markets growth can be hard to come by and the outlook looks bleak given what’s happening across the pond and the continuing impact of the growth challenges linked to Brexit. The fact that the Labour Government have not seen power for 15 years is also likely to be a factor.

One challenge for the fledgling Government is the culmination of missteps based on strategy and communication. Whilst any Government will have ministers with their own private agendas facilitated by their ‘special advisors’ (SpADS) constantly leaking information to the press, this conflict comes on the back of the Prime Minister – Keir Starmer losing his Chief of Staff - Sue Gray after only 5 months in post and the resignation of the Treasury Minister Tulip Siddiq – despite not having broken the ministerial code.

As negotiators, we understand that in preparation, strategy development and understanding how we plan to communicate that strategy are vital whilst recognising that positions change and that we need to develop alternative strategies that can be deployed based on new information or changes in circumstances. However, the role of the Leader is to ensure that the teamwork as a coherent collective, and the early signs are that there are too many cracks appearing.

Imagine yourself sitting in a negotiation where you are having to deal with wayward summarisers and observers on your side of the table? The other side would have a field-day.

None of the above issues that the Government is facing are hugely damaging in of themselves, but the cumulative impact will be. Time for Starmer to get a grip!

Horace McDonald
More by Horace McDonald:
High Bar of Collaboration
The Fury Road
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